Who saw that coming? After a tournament which has often seen defensive discipline prioritised over free-flowing rugby, we had a final day in which the six teams racked up 27 tries and an extraordinary 221 points between them. We saw Wales score seven second-half tries against the Italians, only for Ireland to crush the Scots in their biggest ever away win, leaving England with just too much to do despite putting 55 past the French in a 90 point thriller. But when the dust has settled, what can all six teams take from this championship – and what does it mean for the World Cup?
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(1) Ireland (my original prediction: 2nd)
The canonisation process has already begun for Joe Schmidt. In his first two years as coach he’s led Ireland to their first back-to-back titles since 1948/49. Under his disciplined approach Ireland have become a very, very difficult team to put points past, conceding an average of just 9 per game over the course of the championship.
The corollary is that, until the rout of Scotland in Murrayfield, this Ireland team struggled to score tries, their strategy being to slowly choke teams out of the game rather than overrun them. It worked effectively against England, but when chasing a lead against Wales Ireland couldn’t quite turn their dominance of possession and territory into points. They lack the dynamic backs of Wales and England, so taking advantage of chances when they come is something they’ll need to work on.
Still, it’s a team positively brimming with talent and experience. The pack, formerly an area of weakness, is now stronger than it’s been in years, with real depth in key positions. Amongst the backs, Conor Murray and Jonathan Sexton have become one of the world’s top half-back pairings and young Robbie Henshaw is shaping up to be a real find. Ireland have regularly punched below their weight at the World Cup, but with this squad and a relatively easy group, there’s really no excuse for them not to reach the semi-finals for the first time.
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(2) England (my prediction: 3rd)
England must be getting heartily sick of this by now. For the fourth year in a row they finished as runners-up, missing out on points difference yet again. In particular, they’ll look back and rue their collapse in Dublin, their missed opportunities to run up a cricket score against Scotland, and a leaky defence which shipped nearly twice as many points as Ireland. A lack of experience hurt them when it counted most – Stuart Lancaster’s men keep knocking on the door, but they’re still not quite there.
That said, but for fine margins this England side would have gone home as champions this year. Despite severe injury concerns in the build-up to the tournament they were comfortably the best attacking side, with young centre Jonathan Joseph proving to be particularly impressive. Ben Youngs and George Ford paired superbly at half-back, and captain Chris Robshaw impressed massively alongside the rest of a ferocious pack.
This is a young team, with a lot more still to come, and probably the best squad depth in the Northern Hemisphere. They’ve plenty of talent still to return from injury too. England are a side that can beat anyone in the world on their day, and with home advantage in the World Cup, and the pain of another failed championship to motivate them there’s no reason they can’t get through their (admittedly tough) group to the semi-finals and beyond.
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(3) Wales (my prediction: 1st)
But for a poor 40 minutes in the second half against England, Wales could have been Grand Slam champions this year. Even then it required record-breaking performances from England and Ireland to keep them from the top spot after they crushed Italy on the final day. They’ll feel hard done by but there are a lot of positives for Warren Gatland’s side to take. When their backs are on form they look positively terrifying, and they’ve got a great mix of youth and experience.
While Wales’ locks and backrow were exceptional this year (Alun Wyn Jones, in particular, is in the form of his life) their front row looked shaky, especially after Samson Lee was injured. And defensively Wales were a mixed bag. They were guilty of a few defensive lapses over the course of the tournament, particularly against England, Scotland and Italy, and ultimately it cost them. But their monumental, backs-to-the-wall performance against the Irish showed just what they’re capable of – Ireland simply couldn’t find a way through the red wall.
Wales face a tough task at the World Cup just to get out of a group which contains Australia and England. They’re a frustrating side who often seem to be less than the sum of their parts (their performance against Scotland acting as a case in point) but their final two games showed how potent they can be when firing on all cylinders.
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(4) France (my prediction: 4th)
France continue to bewilder. They seem to have no gameplan and no consistency. Perhaps this is down to the chopping and changing manager Phillipe Saint Andre seems unable to resist inflicting on his side – only five players started every match. Some of these changes were forced by injury. Most were not, and sometimes seemed to have no link with performances either, as when Brice Dulin was rewarded for his try-scoring efforts against Wales by being dropped for the next game. In such circumstances it’s no wonder France looked so unsettled.
Which is a real shame, because on the rare occasions when France weren’t impersonating headless chickens they could be threatening. Until the final game their defending had been solid, and they showed flashes of attacking ability, occasionally playing the kind of champagne rugby we used to associate with Les Bleus. But such demonstrations were few and far between, and their defensive record was somewhat marred by the seven tries they conceded to England on that last crazy day.
There is far too much talent on the French team for them to be playing this badly. But if nothing changes between now and the World Cup – and group rivals Ireland will be praying that nothing does – the chances of them repeating their 2011 run to the final look very distant.
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(5) Italy (my prediction: 6th)
It would be harsh, in a way, to say that Italy were lucky to come fifth ahead of Scotland. After all they were deserving winners against an abject Scotland at Murrayfield. But it’s hard to deny that, over the course of the other four games, they were truly atrocious. The problem wasn’t so much in attack. Going into the final day they were behind only England in terms of tries scored, which certainly represents progress, although the fact that they were kept to a total of three points in their first two games in Rome suggest that a lot of work still needs to be done on that front – in particular, their quest to find a half-way decent kicker will have to continue after Kelly Haimona showed himself to be possibly the worst player to ever play in the Six Nations.
Their real issue, yet again, was the leakiness of their defence. They conceded 182 points, 54 more than Scotland, representing an average of 36 a game. Indeed, Italy’s defending was summed up in the second half against Wales in Rome, when Wales ran in seven tries – the second year in a row where Italy have ended the tournament on the wrong end of a hiding at their home turf.
Sergio Parisse lived up to his star billing, Eduardo Gori is turning into a neat scrum-half, Luca Morisi was an exciting runner, and their front row is as imposing as ever. Everywhere else, Italy are going backwards. On this basis their trip to the World Cup will be a short one.
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(6) Scotland (my prediction: 5th)
There was such optimism, after an impressive Autumn campaign, that new coach Vern Cotter would finally turn Scotland around. And Scotland initially showed like they might live up to that promise, with a narrow defeat away to France and an even narrower one at home to Wales.
Then came the Italy game, where Scotland proved unable to hold onto a 10-point lead at home against a team that was ostensibly the weakest side in the tournament. It was the cue for the wheels to come off. They showed some grit at Twickenham but were in truth lucky not to be thrashed as England spurned a number of chances. Even worse was the limp capitulation in the Edinburgh sunshine against Ireland. Murrayfield used to be a place where opposing teams feared to play. It would appear that’s no longer the case.
There were some stand-outs – Finn Russell at fly-half, Blaire Cowan in the backrow, the Gray brothers at lock, Mark Bennett at centre, the rampaging Stuart Hogg at full-back. But somehow Scotland still seem to be going backwards. Cotter growled that his ‘message wasn’t getting through’. He’ll have to find a way to get his point across by the time the World Cup rolls round, or Scotland could be going home earlier than expected.
The Mongoose 